Sunday, August 12, 2007

Global Warming

I did the research and wrote this in 2000. It still is relevant so I post it here:

Global warming is a theory that gets a lot of attention from the national media. It is poorly reported, with theories represented as facts and facts that do not support the theories not reported at all. Thanks to the internet, much of these ignored facts are available if you care to look. The following is what I found.

The current crisis-inducing number being reported is a rise in global temperatures of less than 1 degree Fahrenheit. What you are not told is that half of this rise occurred in the first half of the century when CO2 levels were rising very slowly. Since the 1950’s there has been a rapid rise in CO2 amounts with no corresponding rapid rise in surface temperatures. These temperature readings also do not take into account the Urban Heat Island phenomenon. This is caused by many weather stations now being located at large urban airports surrounded by acres and acres of heat-retaining tarmac. Temperature readings taken from within these Islands can be 10 degrees higher that the surrounding countryside.

In addition, the earth is a big place. Using widely separated point sources of data to determine a global average is not accurate. In the 1980’s satellite data showed no net cooling or warming. The 1990’s show a similar trend. Weather data have been kept for only the past 100 years or so. Climate happens over thousands of years. We have not collected enough data to accurately predict next Wednesday’s weather much less what the weather will be like in 50 or 100 years.

Climatologists use models to predict weather. The models used are by necessity much more simple than the actual weather systems. The mathematics are not available to represent all of the many, many variables. These predictions, especially for the long term, amount to little more than guesses.

There is also no data to support the hypothesis that CO2 causes warming. Data has been obtained from Antarctic ice core samples that go back 180,000 years and suggests that temperatures cause CO2 levels to change, not the reverse. The samples show that CO2 levels 120,000 years ago were the same as they are now. We can safely assume that it was not warm enough to melt the Antarctic ice sheets since we can take samples of ice that existed that long ago. The presence and effects of water vapor and ozone on possible temperature change far outweighs that of the much-maligned CO2. Also left out of the theories are the effects of solar activity on the earth as a whole. When solar activity goes up, the temperature of the earth increases. Solar activity has been increasing for the past 300 years from a low that caused a mini ice-age in the 1700’s. Geological findings indicate that the Earth’s temperatures are finally approaching levels believed to have been the norm prior to the unusual lows of the 1700’s.

Finally, remember that it was as recently as 1974 that these same climatologists were telling us that we were headed for another ice-age and we were all going to freeze to death!!


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